Wargame Articles

The Four Minute Warning by John Curry

Studies had shown that even a few moments warning greatly lessened casualties in event of air attack and this extended to even nuclear attack. Warning would not benefit those at ground zero, but could reduce casualties from flying debris such as glass on the periphery of the attack zone.

The minimum time for a submarine launched ballistic missile from a Soviet sub in the North Sea to impact a UK city would have been four minutes, so the system was designed to react inside this time.

If the country was on a simple alert or general alert, then it would take 30 seconds for the BMEWs radar's to identify an attack pattern. They would confer to confirm (in order to prevent an individual fault causing an alert) which would take another 30 seconds. The Home Office Warning System would then be informed within another 60 seconds.

Inside each bunker and warning point (with an air raid siren), the Home Office Warning System would be switched on. Normally, it just gives a beep every few seconds, but in event of an attack it would give a sort of warbling sound interspersed with exciting words such as 'Attack Warning Red' and 'Attack imminent' (the latter for any really stupid people who happened to be in the bunker).

A few warning points were automatic, but mainly individuals would then run outside and sound the siren (a somewhat suicidal job if a nuke landed nearby).

The BBC would interrupt all BBC channels and tell people to turn off their sets and take cover.

This system would have got a warning out between 3 and 4 minutes, depending on how fast people at the warning points reacted to the attack warning and ran outside to turn the handles on the sirens.

Of course, in 1992, the system was stood down and is now being sold on ebay.

However, now the possibility of air attack, even ballistic missile strike is starting to look a distant threat on the 10 year horizon, so the planners looked at setting up the warning system again.

The proposed new digital system will however take five minutes to sound the sirens from the threat being detected. Now that is what I call progress.